数学建模试题：请你建立合理的数学模型，设计一个全面而有效的评价生物多样性 的指标。拜托大家看一下

Application of ROC curve analysis in evaluating the performance of alien
species’ potential distribution models
Yunsheng Wang1,2, Bingyan Xie1*, Fanghao Wan3, Qiming Xiao2, Liangying Dai2
1 Institute of Vegetables and Flowers, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081
2 College of Bio-safety Science and Technology, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128
3 Institute of Plant Protection (South Section), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081
Abstract: Ecological niche models (ENMs), which are widely employed to predict the potential geographic
distribution of species, provide an important tool to quantify the risks imposed by invasive alien species. The
problem of how to evaluate the performance of different models has attracted more and more attention. In the
present paper, we introduced the principle of the method of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve
analysis in assessing the accuracy of different ENMs. We predicted the suitable distribution area of Radopholus
similis, an important banana toppling disease nematode, with five widely used ENMs and evaluated
the performance of different models by ROC curve analysis. The area under ROC curve (AUC) for BIOCLIM,
CLIMEX, DOMAIN, GARP, and MAXENT models was 0.810, 0.758, 0.921, 0.903, and 0.950, respectively.
Among these, the biggest value of AUC was assigned to MAXENT, indicating that the result
gained by MAXENT should be better than the other four models. According to the results of analysis of
variance (ANOVA), there was a remarkable difference in AUC between each model except for DOMAIN and
GARP.
Key words: ROC curve, alien species, model evaluation, suitable distribution area, Radopholus similis

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这一题是今年数学建模网络赛的B题吧！在网上肯定找不到答案的

要是有答案就好咯！

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